Description: The paper argues that Risks Evaluation at its core is a psychological process that can lead to the special type of chaos described in modern Chaos Theory. It will argue that quantification and scientific modeling does not exempt risk assessment from the potential for deep biases. Presented at 2010 Enterprise Risk Management Symposium, Society of Actuaries, April 12-15, 2010.

Description: This paper sets forth challenges presented by an aging society with a focus on the situation of the individual and the implications for actuaries. From Retirement Needs Framework, M-RS00-1.

Description: Download the papers from the "Defining the Characteristics of the 21st Century Retirement System" monograph.

Description: The two-parameter Pareto distribution is a commonly used model in reliability and risk modeling. Minimum variance unbiased estimates of the parameters of Pareto distribution are not known. In this paper, we propose and investigate a method of estimation of the parameters of the Pareto distribution. This method is based on minimization of the Kolmogorov-Smirnov distance between the empirical cumulative distribution function [cdf] and the cdf of the Pareto distribution.

Description: Download the papers from the "Defining the Characteristics of the 21st Century Retirement System" monograph.

Description: A collection of essays aimed to gather perspectives, opinions and data on how to advance the state of effective retirement planning to assist individuals, actuaries, financial advisors, employers, and other stakeholders. The goal was to explore ideas and thoughts on identifying current and alternative means of achieving and measuring retirement income adequacy.

Description: Many risk management decisions involve the timing of implementing risk strategies. The cost of hedging, capital raising and securitization changes with the economic environment. The timing of de-risking and investment in new risk management functions affect the cost and benefit of these projects as well. Like investment timing, it is important to consider the timing in risk management decisions to maximize the gain of risk management projects. This paper discusses methods of determining the appropriate timing of implementing a risk management strategy or investing in risk management projects. It explains the human biases that may lead to inferior timing decisions. It also covers the costs and benefits of risk management projects and the impact of new information on the decision-making process. Timing considerations for financial risk hedging, insurance risk hedging and investment in new risk management projects are explained. Factors used for timing decisions include economic conditions, market volatility, credit rating, borrowing cost, capital adequacy and financial resources.

Description: Book Review of "Cheating Death, the Promise and the Future Impact of Trying to Live Forever", by Marvin Cetron and Owen Davies.

Description: Elderly women living alone experience some of the highest poverty rates in the United States. One reason for their financial frailty is that they face more longevity risk than men. Existing financial products that can mitigate this risk are not attractive to many people. Can alternative vehicles for pooling longevity risk be developed outside the insurance market that would appeal to these individuals? This paper suggests some risk-pooling approaches and compares their effectiveness and viability.

Description: Graphs mortality experience over the prior 15 years, show possible trends over the prior 80 years, discusses the impact on liabilities and funding of the New York public retirement system based on projections of life expectancy, and discusses the possible factors that have affected mortality.